Is Europe dying?

While Europe is distracted by the conflict over Brexit, Britain being the first country to exit from the EU, it is probably undergoing its death throes.  There are three main reasons why:

  1. The low birth rate:  Throughout Europe the birth rate is so low that it is far less than the replacement rate required to maintain a stable population (the overall figure is 1.6 children per woman and is declining).  This means that there are not enough people to fulfill the work requirements, both in technical jobs and in menial tasks.  The latter have to be filled by lowly paid immigrants.  But in fact the  liberal laws in the EU make it worthwhile for immigrants to enter Europe where they can find work and earn far more than they could in their home countries.
  2. The immigrant flood:  Italy issued a warning that it will close its ports to all migrants because last week more than 80,000 people entered, mostly from Libya and mostly Black Africans and North African Muslims.  The Italian authorities simply can’t cope with this flood of immigrants, most of whom want to move further north to Germany, Sweden and Britain.  The EU is simply unable to cope with this flood of humanity.  Note that Germany already took ca. 1.4 million immigrants, mostly Syrian refugees in the past few years at a cost of over one billion euros.  Note the difference, immigrants are simply people entering a country, while refugees are fleeing war and are in fear of their lives.  Refugees can ask for asylum, economic immigrants can’t.  Most of the current wave are the latter and could be simply returned to whence they came.  The problem is that Europe is so liberal now, that I saw a young woman earnestly arguing on the BBC that the very title of “economic immigrant” should be banned.  What self-deception.  Of course, I haven’t even mentioned the problem of terrorism that the Muslim hordes bring with them.
  3. The financial crisis: Greece still has a debt burden of m∈300, and this is after hundreds of billions of euros have already been loaned.  The fundamental problem of the eurozone is that it is based on a fiction, namely that all members will adhere to the rules and that all members can in fact be solvent.  There is a clear-cut division between the northern tier (Germany and Scandinavia) and the southern tier (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.) and nothing they can do can change the fact that the north will always be carrying the south financially.

Add these three factors together and Europe is on a sharp decline.  As immigrants replace the native European populations, the basic economic strength of Europe, that depends on innovation and dynamism, is being sapped.   In the natural world the predators always go first for the weak and the sick – the survival of the fittest.  Europe is like a big blundering buffalo that is unable to keep up with the herd, but hasn’t yet noticed the lions trailing it.



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