Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Monday publicly endorsed the concept of an Arab-Israel “top-down” deal first, before a possible peace agreement with the Palestinians. Although this is not official Israeli Government policy, it does give a kind of imprimatur to this approach. It is contrary to Pres. Trump’s current emphasis on achieving an Israel-Palestine peace process through direct negotiations. But, such an indirect deal with initial agreement and recognition of Israel by the Arab States, particularly Saudi Arabia, could pave the way for such a direct deal. In fact, a Palestinian aide to Pres Abbas of the PA has leaked that this is the route currently being explored.
As I described in my posting “Black Swan Events” (June 12) these kind of unpredictable and unexpected events come along and change the whole political picture. If all the major Arab Muslim countries involved (Egypt, Jordan, and then perhaps Saudi Arabia) make peace with Israel before the Palestine situation is resolved, the Palestinians then have no backing for further military action against Israel. Israel is then legitimate in the eyes of the major Arab players. Only Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah, Syria and possibly Hamas) can and will continue to oppose Israel militarily.
I have been supporting this kind of deal for a long time. Given the defeats of all the major Arab States in their wars and military actions against Israel and the intransigence of the Palestinians and their adoption of terrorism as their only response to the existence of Israel there seems to be no alternative. These States know the true situation, it’s like the fall of Communism, the visit of Sadat to Jerusalem and the opening up to Communist China, eventually these things had to happen, and in this case it will too.