The Palestinians and the Iranians are the only ones threatening the US if the proposed transfer of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem goes ahead. But, that is not a smart move by them, because if he doesn’t make the transfer it will look like he is caving in to their intimidation. He will not want to be seen as weak from the outset.
There are three possible outcomes that Trump could do to finesse the situation:
- He could declare the US Consulate in Jerusalem, that is currently independent of the Embassy in Jerusalem and is really the Embassy to the PA, to be under the authority of the Ambassador, and that would give the US an Embassy in Jerusalem.
- He could declare that the Consulate in Jerusalem is the Embassy and downgrade the Embassy in Tel Aviv to a Consulate.
- He could declare that the Embassy in Tel Aviv will be shut down and moved to Jerusalem, although they would have to find a large enough secure facility, and that could take years.
Already there is a report that Pres. Trump is cooling on the idea of moving the Embassy. But, you never know with these reports, it could be false, liberal disinformation. However, if he does nothing then he will lose immense credibility with his supporters. SImilarly if he abandons building a wall with Mexico.
My expectation is that he will somehow finesse the situation, so that he will keep his word, but at the same time avoid the appearance of actually moving the EMbassy so that he can try to avoid a negative reaction from the Arab world. Certainly the State Department professionals will be against any such change to the status quo. We will see soon enough, when PM Netanyahu meets Trump in the White House next week.