Numbers to juggle with

Here are some interesting numbers:

1. The total number of refuges recorded in the world in 2014 was 59.5 million, a 16% increase over the previous year and a 60% increase over ten years ago, according to George Guterres, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.  The main cause for this huge increase was the war and instability in the Arab world, in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.   Of these, the majority are unable to feed themselves and are being provided with food and water by the UN World Food Program, largely funded by the US and other Western sources.  Of all these refugees, the only group not included are the Palestinians, who unlike all the others are not settled in the country they move to and who receive larger amounts of aid than any others.

2.  The number of refugees trying to reach Europe across the Mediterranean Sea in the past year is estimated to be ca. 480,000.   This is a flood compared to previous years and there are already too many refugees in European countries.  The flood consists of about half Black Africans and half North African and Syrian Muslims.    Certainly some of these refugees are fleeing war and repression and deserve asylum, but most of them are economic migrants, seeking to improve their life in a more affluent region.  There have always been refugees fleeing to Europe (my own grandparents among them).  But, whereas in previous generations the immigrants were eager to embrace the mores and culture of the new host country and become assimilated, most of the current refugees are not so inclined.  Particularly most of the Muslims are unassimilable, they seek to change the new host country into a replica of their own.  The Europeans will have to take drastic measures if they are to survive this tsunami of aliens.

3. The number of foreign recruits to the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) in 2014 was 16,000, much larger than any previous number of recruits to any other terrorist organization.  It is not only the appeal of the adventure or ideology of the organization, but also it’s smooth PR appeal to unassimilated and angry Muslim youths in the European countries.  They have relative wealth, health and education, but since they are disaffected and angry, they go off to the great Muslim battle.  But, there they are likely to find themselves fighting other Muslims or minority groups, such as Christians, Kurds, Yazidis, Shia, who they are required to kill, murder and behead, or they will be sent in as expendable suicide bombers.  Not exactly a pleasant outcome, that is if they survive, not only the war against Assad’s Syrian Army, but also the bombing of the US and allied forces.

4. The number of Iraqis who have volunteered to be trained by US forces to fight IS is 9,000, less than half of the required 24,000 estimated for a reasonably sized Iraqi Army to face the experienced and ruthless forces of IS.  Once again the Iraqis are proving incapable of providing the “boots on the ground” to stem the tide of IS, and since the US and its allies are not again prepared to see their own men picked off in Iraq and the Shia militias are not militarily competent, it seems there will be no stopping the IS tide as it moves inexorably towards Baghdad.  The only capable military that can face IS is the Iranian Army and the Iranian National Guard.   I look forward to a fight to the finish between them.  What will happen after that?  We will move in and take out the weakened winner.

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2 thoughts on “Numbers to juggle with

  1. Dear Jack: At the end of this thesis, you say, “We will move in and take out the weakened winner.” Who are you referring to… We, the Americans? We, the Israelis? We, a UN coalition, as useless as that may sound? All of the above? Certainly, Israel has everything to lose and nothing to gain by jumping into that food fight. America should probably step back and let the locals decide it the only way they know how. The UN continues to be about as useful as a case of herpes in a brothel! Better to just let them ‘fight it out’ amongst themselves. And yes, there have almost always been refugees and immigrants. For as long as mankind was able to be disgusted with their current situation and decided that, “… maybe it would help if we moved from (here) to (there).” Of course, one man’s immigrant seeking a better place for the family is another man’s “economic refugee” seeking to “steal” that better place from whoever is already there. In a sense all immigrants are economic refugees (DUH!) — if my family’s situation 120 yrs. ago had been economically and politically better in Eastern Europe, they probably would have stayed there, and not picked up stakes and moved to the US. Multiply that by however many Irish and Germans and Russians and Slavs and Jews, etc., etc., and you have the underlying theme of the American story. Ditto for Canada (the only differences being that they decided not to leave the UK in 1776… and the skiing up north is consistently better!!).

    ~ R

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    • We, of course, refers to the West in general, but the USA and Israel in particular (I don’t expect Europe to do anything). But, this is a minor point.
      You seem to forget in your long essay that most Jewish migrants moved because of persecution and pogroms. Many of the current migrants also have these problems (such as Christians and other minorities in the Middle East) but they are the minority of the migrants.

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